At the time of writing, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram was arrested by French authorities [archived version].
As usual, a flurry of theories and panic ensued. I want to give my opinion on what’s going to happen next. At this time, I don’t believe Telegram is in any significant danger. Of course, things could change, but there’s absolutely no reason to panic right now.
Let’s review the facts.
Pavel Durov’s arrest
As much as I dislike Pavel Durov for being a greedy liar, like many other billionaires, the reality is Pavel is wanted on charges of allowing drug dealers and sex criminals to operate on the app, according to French media [archived version].
There are precedents for this. Pavel Durov is Telegram’s CEO, and earlier, Germany was considering banning access to the platform [archived version] on grounds of facilitating hate speech.
Of course, Pavel Durov lawyers disagree [archived version] with the charges, but the reality is that Telegram is well-known [archived version] for facilitating terrorism, allowing terrorists to spread propaganda through their platform, but also drugs [archived version], copyright infringement [archived version], and more.
A legal battle would last years
If Durov wants to challenge this arrest warrant, which he most likely would, this would mean it would become a legal battle that would last for years, between appeals, hearings, and legal processes.
Telegram has no servers in France
Even if they did, a warrant could be issued to take these servers down. This is independent Pavel Durov’s personal warrant.
While Telegram has servers in other EU countries, like The Netherlands, a police raid would require a warrant issued by a Dutch court, which can happen regardless of whether Pavel Durov is in jail or has a warrant against him.
Telegram is incorporated in UAE
This means that even if the European data centers are raided and shut down, Telegram’s employees can still migrate the data to new servers located elsewhere from their UAE headquarters.
A separate warrant would be required to arrest UAE employees and/or shut down the company.
Telegram does moderate content
Telegram regularly shuts down spam accounts, delete channels related to child abuse, tackle terrorist content, and there have been cases of Telegram taking down channels disseminating leaks [archived version], likely at the request of governments and law enforcement agencies.
So Telegram does moderate content. And they obey the law. At least sometimes, depending on what they consider reasonable or something like that.
And although their techniques are questionable [archived version], the reality is Telegram is very far from being a “free speech absolutist” platform. I don’t actually believe such thing exists. I talk more about free speech, and Pavel Durov in my previous post: Free speech is not a noble goal to pursue.
Russia already tried to block Telegram
It didn’t work. Telegram remains one of the most censorship-resistant communication platforms.
Due to Telegram’s use of Domain fronting, Russia was looking to block millions of IP addresses [archived version] which ultimately ended up blocking many legitimate businesses, including Russian websites and other AWS and Google Cloud customers.
Telegram’s Russian block was lifted in June 2020 [archived version].
Although domain fronting is not easily achievable on Google Cloud or AWS anymore, there is strong evidence suggesting that Telegram will continue to fight legal challenges through technical means.
Another anti-censorship measure integrated into Telegram is MTProto proxies.
There are easier ways to shut down Telegram
While Telegram doesn’t always comply with the law, if Google and Apple received warrants to take down the Telegram app, they would have to comply or face hefty fines. This is why Telegram content on the official Google Play Store is sometimes censored [archived version], whereas the website APK downloaded is not.
But what if Pavel Durov is put in jail?
In the beginning, it was Pavel Durov personally funding Telegram because he believed in the mission. For many years, Telegram operated completely for free, without ads, and without any kind of subscription.
Since then, Telegram has introduced Premium features that require payment.
The goal is for Telegram to gain financial independence and possibly bring in revenue. While Telegram is not a public entity and it is difficult to know whether they are running a deficit, or actually making money, I estimate Telegram is still losing money, given how keen they are on introducing payment features like the recent Telegram Stars which amount to 0.013 USD per star received.
In this scenario, it is likely that Pavel Durov being arrested and put in jail could lead to chaos at Telegram if nobody is able to continue funding Telegram and Telegram remains financially dependant on him.
Regardless, as mentioned, if this was to happen, which is highly unlikely, as Durov’s lawyers will fight this case, this would take many, many years before coming to fruition.
What’s next?
While this is a developing situation, and there don’t seem to be any indications of Telegram being shut down anytime soon, it’s worth remembering that Telegram has several techniques to safeguard your data and bypass censorship.
Download the app from the website or use web.telegram.org
For Android, you can download the APK directly from Telegram. This APK has access to certain content, including pornographic content and other content unavailable in the Google Play version.
For other mobile operating systems, Telegram has a fully-featured web app available at web.telegram.org.
Use MTProto proxies
There are thousands of MTProto proxy lists available.
The way MTProto is developed means that proxy administrators cannot see any information, cannot read any private messages, know your username, or learn the groups you are in. However, they can display a “sponsored channel” on top of your chat list. Again, this does not mean you automatically join the channel upon using their proxy, or that they know your Telegram account details.
Of course, it’s important to consider that running your own MTProto proxy, while possible, must be done in a country that’s not susceptible to blocking Telegram. For example: If Brazil blocks Telegram, you must seek an MTProto proxy outside of Brazil.
Download your account data
You can also export individual channels and groups.
It is recommended to do this regularly, especially if you store data in Telegram that doesn’t exist anywhere else, given their generous 2 GB file quota which increases to 4 GB for Premium subscribers.
Changelog
Since publishing this article, the following content has been modified:
- Added “But what if Pavel Durov is put in jail?” section